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Property Crime Trends in Tarkio, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tarkio, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2019, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 24 incidents in 2010 to just 4 in 2019, representing an 83.3% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of fluctuating population numbers, with the population decreasing from 1,721 in 2010 to 1,645 in 2019, a modest 4.4% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 12 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 1 in 2019. This represents a substantial 91.7% decrease over the decade. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.97 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2019. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents also decreased, from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2019. This significant reduction suggests improved security measures or increased community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a declining trend. From 12 cases in 2010, the number fell to 3 in 2019, a 75% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.97 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2019. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft remained relatively low, staying at 0.01% for most of the decade. This consistent low percentage indicates that the city maintained a smaller proportion of these crimes compared to other areas in the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but remained relatively low. From zero incidents in 2010, it peaked at 3 in 2011 and 2016, before returning to zero in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 1.75 in 2011. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft ranged from 0% to 0.02%, suggesting that this type of crime is not a major concern for the area.
Arson data for the city shows zero incidents reported throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2019. This consistent lack of arson cases indicates that it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $39,712 in 2013 to $45,549 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 19 to 4. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we might anticipate total property crimes to stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year, assuming current socio-economic conditions persist.
In summary, Tarkio has experienced a remarkable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. The absence of arson cases and the low rates of motor vehicle theft contribute to a positive safety profile for the community. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety in the years to come.
