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Property Crime Trends in Tarboro: A Historical Town's Changing Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tarboro, a historic town in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, coupled with a gradual decline in population. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes decreased by 4.3%, from 375 to 359 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 7.4%, from 14,499 to 13,425 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 102 burglaries, which decreased to 73 by 2017, representing a 28.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 7.03 in 2010 to 5.44 in 2017. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2017. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed more volatility. The number of incidents increased from 262 in 2010 to 276 in 2017, a 5.3% rise. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents increased more substantially from 18.07 in 2010 to 20.56 in 2017. The city's share of state larceny-thefts fluctuated, peaking at 0.32% in 2016 before dropping to 0.25% in 2017, indicating potential shifts in local law enforcement strategies or reporting practices.
Motor vehicle theft trends were less consistent. The number of incidents decreased from 11 in 2010 to 10 in 2017, a 9.1% reduction. However, due to population decline, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 0.76 to 0.74. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts saw a significant increase from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2017, suggesting that this type of crime may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Arson cases in the city were rare but showed an increase. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 2 incidents in 2017. This translates to an increase from 0 to 0.15 incidents per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arson cases also increased dramatically from 0% to 0.29%, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $35,092 in 2013 to $39,645 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 465 to 359 (2013-2017 data). Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between the percentage of Black residents and property crime rates, with both showing small increases from 2013 to 2017.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Tarboro may see a further decrease in burglaries to around 60 incidents annually, while larceny-theft could stabilize at approximately 280 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain relatively constant at about 8-10 incidents annually, and arson cases may continue to be sporadic, averaging 1-2 per year.
In summary, Tarboro has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While burglaries have significantly decreased, other forms of property crime have shown mixed trends. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some influence on these patterns. As Tarboro moves forward, continued monitoring and adaptive law enforcement strategies will be crucial in managing and potentially further reducing property crime rates.
