Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an increase over time. In 2010, there were 95 motor vehicle thefts reported, which increased to 142 in 2020, representing a 49.5% increase. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.9 in 2016 to 2.05 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly from 0.4% in 2010 to 0.62% in 2020, suggesting that this type of crime has become a growing concern relative to state averages.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low and stable. The number of arsons reported ranged from 0 to 3 per year between 2010 and 2020. The arson rate per 1,000 people remained consistently low, at about 0.01 to 0.05. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated between 0% and 0.34% during this period, with no clear trend emerging.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 5,622 per square mile in 2016 to 5,960 in 2020, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization may not necessarily lead to higher crime rates in this city. Additionally, there appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $50,096 in 2016 to $52,142 in 2020, property crime rates generally decreased.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching less than 50 cases annually by 2029. Larceny thefts may stabilize around 700-750 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts, however, are projected to continue increasing, potentially reaching 180-200 cases annually by 2029 if current trends persist. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with 1-2 cases per year.

In summary, Tamarac has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and moderate decreases in larceny thefts. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a growing challenge. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates despite population growth is commendable, possibly attributed to effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. Moving forward, focusing on addressing motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for continued improvement in overall public safety.