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Property Crime Trends in Tallassee, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tallassee, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 22.68% from 291 to 225 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population change, with the city's population decreasing by 8.07% from 9,674 to 8,893 residents over the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2012, there were 82 burglaries, which decreased to 53 in 2022, representing a 35.37% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.48 per 1,000 residents in 2012 to 5.96 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.25% in 2012 to 0.47% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over the decade, from 197 in 2012 to 141 in 2022, a 28.43% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 20.36 in 2012 to 15.86 in 2022. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased slightly from 0.23% to 0.30%, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was somewhat slower than the state's overall progress.
Motor vehicle theft presented a different pattern. The number of incidents increased from 12 in 2012 to 31 in 2022, a substantial 158.33% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.24 in 2012 to 3.49 in 2022. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0.17% to 0.46%, suggesting that this type of crime became a more significant issue in the city relative to the state average.
Arson data was only available for 2022, with one reported incident, representing 0.19% of state arsons. This limited data makes it impossible to analyze trends over time for this specific crime category.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates appears to have a moderate negative correlation with the slight increase in population density from 753 per square mile in 2017 to 782 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the fluctuations in median income (which ranged from $49,622 in 2019 to $56,867 in 2021) and the variations in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to rise if current trends persist. It's important to note that these predictions are based on historical data and may not account for unforeseen factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, Tallassee has shown improvement in most property crime categories over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some influence on crime trends, highlighting the complex interplay between social factors and criminal activity. As the community moves forward, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for motor vehicle theft, will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon the overall positive trends observed in property crime rates.
