Motor vehicle theft exhibited a more complex pattern. The number of incidents decreased from 8 in 2010 to 7 in 2022, a modest 12.5% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the rate remained relatively stable, moving from 1.5 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.3 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, with fluctuations in between, peaking at 0.13% in 2014. This suggests that while the absolute numbers have slightly improved, the city's progress in reducing motor vehicle theft has been less pronounced compared to other property crimes.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with 3 incidents reported in 2010, 2011, and 2017, and no cases reported in several other years, including 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.57 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases varied dramatically, from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.44% in 2017, before dropping to 0% in recent years. This erratic pattern makes it difficult to discern a clear trend but suggests that arson is not a persistent problem in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $27,598 in 2013 to $35,157 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 151 to 93. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trajectory, we might expect total property crimes to decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 75-80 incidents annually. However, this prediction assumes stability in other contributing factors and should be interpreted cautiously.

In conclusion, Tabor City has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across most categories over the past decade, despite a slight increase in population. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft, while motor vehicle theft has seen more modest reductions. The correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further enhance public safety in the coming years. These trends paint a picture of a small town successfully addressing property crime issues, potentially serving as a model for similar communities facing comparable challenges.