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Property Crime Trends in Sykesville: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sykesville, located in Maryland, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 49 in 2010 and ending at 24 in 2019, representing a 51% decrease. During this same period, the population decreased from 4,058 in 2010 to 3,293 in 2019, a 18.9% reduction.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 20 in 2017 before dropping to 4 in 2019. This represents a 100% increase from 2010 to 2019. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.49 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries also increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2019, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary figures despite the population decrease.
Larceny-theft incidents show a declining trend. In 2010, there were 44 cases, which decreased to 16 in 2019, a 63.6% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.84 in 2010 to 4.86 in 2019. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2019, suggesting that the decrease in larceny-theft was somewhat proportional to statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends show fluctuation. There were 3 cases in 2010, which increased to 4 in 2019, a 33.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.74 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.05% to 0.08% over this period, indicating a growing contribution to statewide figures despite the population decrease.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic. There were 2 cases in 2010, peaking at 3 in 2017, and dropping to 0 in 2019. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.49 in 2010 to 0 in 2019. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.43% in 2010 to 0% in 2019, suggesting high volatility in this rare crime category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $97,591 in 2013 to $116,561 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 24 to 24 over the same period. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the increasing diversity of the population and changes in crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 87% in 2013 to 88% in 2019, while the percentage of black residents remained stable at 4-5% during this period. This demographic shift coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease by approximately 20-25% from the 2019 levels. This would bring the total number of property crimes to around 18-19 annually.
In summary, Sykesville has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The most significant changes include the substantial decrease in larceny-theft and the volatility in burglary rates. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and increasing median income, suggest a complex interplay of socioeconomic factors influencing crime rates in the city. As Sykesville continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring of these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety.
