Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 8 incidents, which increased to 9 in 2022, a 12.5% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate increased from 2.60 to 3.29 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, fluctuating between 0.00% and 0.01%. This slight increase in motor vehicle thefts, contrary to the trends in other property crimes, may warrant targeted prevention efforts.

Arson incidents in the city have been relatively rare and inconsistent. The number of arsons fluctuated between 0 and 3 per year, with no clear trend. Due to the low numbers, the arson rate per 1,000 residents and the city's share of state arsons varied widely from year to year. The sporadic nature of arson incidents in the city suggests they may be isolated events rather than part of a broader trend.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a period of population decrease and fluctuating population density. For instance, as the population dropped from 3,077 in 2010 to 2,738 in 2022, the total property crimes also fell from 76 to 45. This suggests a possible link between population dynamics and crime rates in the city.

There appears to be a correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $52,949 in 2013 to $59,914 in 2019, property crimes generally decreased. However, this trend was not consistent throughout the entire period, indicating that other factors may also influence crime rates.

The racial composition of the city remained relatively stable, with the white population slightly decreasing from 88% in 2013 to 79% in 2022. This gradual change in demographics doesn't seem to have a strong correlation with property crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly reaching near-zero levels. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or slightly decrease if current trends reverse. Arson incidents are likely to remain sporadic and low in number.

In summary, Sutter Creek has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred despite population decline and fluctuations in median income. The city's share of state property crimes has remained consistently low, indicating that it is a relatively safe community within California. While motor vehicle thefts have shown a slight increase, the overall property crime landscape in Sutter Creek has improved significantly. These trends, if continued, suggest a promising outlook for public safety in the coming years.