Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 99 reported cases, which rose to 149 in 2022, a 50.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.84 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2022, a 15.5% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts nearly doubled from 0.56% in 2010 to 1.08% in 2022. This trend suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern in the city, outpacing both population growth and state-wide trends.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but shown an overall decrease. From 27 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 15 in 2022, a 44.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022, a 56.5% decrease. However, the city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 2.97% in 2010 to 2.77% in 2022, indicating that while arson has become less prevalent in the city, it remains a significant portion of the state's total.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $55,857 in 2013 to $96,912 in 2022, a 73.5% rise, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 17.16 to 14.03, an 18.2% reduction. This suggests that increasing economic prosperity may contribute to lower property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further 5-10% decrease in overall property crime rates, assuming current economic and demographic trends continue. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially decreasing by another 15-20%. Larceny-theft may stabilize or show a slight decrease of 3-5%. Motor vehicle theft rates could potentially increase by 10-15% if current trends persist, highlighting an area for focused prevention efforts.

In conclusion, Surprise has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite rapid population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries and the stabilization of larceny-theft rates relative to population growth are particularly noteworthy achievements. However, the rising trend in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The strong correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing property crime rates underscores the importance of economic development in crime prevention strategies. As the city continues to grow, maintaining this balance between economic prosperity and effective crime prevention will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.