Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the observed period. In 2010, there was only 1 reported case, which increased to 7 in 2016 before returning to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low, starting at 0.21 in 2010 and ending at 0.13 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.11%, ending at 0.01% in 2022. These figures suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the city compared to other property crimes.

Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported cases from 2010 to 2012, with occasional incidents in subsequent years. The highest number recorded was 3 cases in 2013, representing 0.36% of state arson cases. In 2022, there was 1 reported case, accounting for 0.11% of state arsons. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.53 (in 2013) and standing at 0.13 in 2022. These figures indicate that arson is not a prevalent issue in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 613 people per square mile in 2010 to 977 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $59,108 in 2013 to $62,177 in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, representing five years from now) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease further to around 60-70 incidents annually by 2029. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing at 5-10 cases per year. Larceny-theft, while showing a decreasing trend, may fluctuate between 50-60 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain infrequent, with 0-2 cases per year for each category.

In summary, Surf City has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary reduction, while larceny-theft remains the most common property crime. The city's low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson contribute to its overall favorable property crime profile. These trends, coupled with increasing population density and rising median income, suggest that Surf City has been effective in managing and reducing property crime, potentially through a combination of improved economic conditions, community engagement, and law enforcement strategies.