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Property Crime Trends in Sunset Hills: A City Grappling with Vehicle Theft Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sunset Hills, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 162 in 2010 and ending at 196 in 2022, representing a 20.99% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 9,707 in 2010 to 10,019 in 2022, a 3.21% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which peaked at 29 in 2013 before declining to 12 in 2022, a 47.83% decrease over the entire period. The burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.37 in 2010 to 1.20 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, ranging from 0.04% in 2016 to 0.12% in 2021. This overall downward trend in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns in the area.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed an upward trend. In 2010, there were 132 larceny thefts, which increased to 148 in 2022, a 12.12% rise. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, moving from 13.60 in 2010 to 14.77 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts increased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, indicating a growing share of this type of crime relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a significant increase over the period. From 7 incidents in 2010, it rose to 36 in 2022, a 414.29% increase. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 0.72 in 2010 to 3.59 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022. This dramatic rise suggests a growing problem with vehicle security or organized theft rings in the area.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively rare. There was 1 case in 2010, 2 in 2016, and 1 again in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained below 0.2 throughout the period. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated, peaking at 0.23% in 2016 but generally remaining low.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between rising median income and increasing property crimes. The median income grew from $101,484 in 2013 to $107,249 in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. Additionally, the slight increase in population density from 1,080 per square mile in 2010 to 1,115 in 2022 correlates with the rise in certain property crimes, particularly larceny theft and motor vehicle theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: Burglaries may continue to decline, potentially reaching single digits annually. Larceny thefts are likely to increase moderately, possibly reaching 160-170 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may continue their upward trend, potentially exceeding 50 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic, likely not exceeding 1-2 cases per year.
In summary, Sunset Hills has experienced divergent trends in property crimes over the past decade. While burglaries have decreased significantly, larceny thefts have shown a moderate increase, and motor vehicle thefts have risen dramatically. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and increasing median income, suggest a shifting landscape of criminal activity that will require targeted prevention strategies and community engagement to address effectively in the coming years.
