Motor vehicle theft trends show more volatility. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 3 in 2022, a 200% increase. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased from 0.24 to 0.47, a 95.8% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.04%, indicating that this type of crime grew faster locally than the state average. This trend suggests that motor vehicle theft may require increased attention from local law enforcement.

Arson data is limited, with only one reported case in 2022, representing 0.19% of state arsons. Given the lack of historical data, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 414 per square mile in 2010 to 627 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization hasn't led to higher crime rates. Additionally, the rise in median income from $38,102 in 2013 to $47,670 in 2022 correlates with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.

The percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 78% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This could suggest that higher rates of homeownership may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.

Racial demographics also shifted during this period, with the white population decreasing from 91% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 4% to 19%. Despite these demographic changes, property crime rates continued to decline, indicating that racial composition may not be a significant factor in local crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Burglaries are projected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 4-5 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize at approximately 30-32 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 4-5 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year.

In conclusion, Summerdale has shown a positive trend in reducing property crimes over the past decade, despite significant population growth. The city's efforts in reducing burglaries and larceny-thefts have been particularly successful, outpacing state averages in some cases. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts suggests a need for targeted interventions in this area. The correlations between rising incomes, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates indicate that continued economic development and community stability may further contribute to crime reduction in the coming years.