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Property Crime Trends in Sullivan, Missouri: A Decade of Resilience and Economic Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sullivan, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 401 in 2010, peaking at 482 in 2016, and then decreasing to 359 in 2022, representing a 10.5% decrease over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population experienced minor fluctuations, growing from 8,619 in 2010 to 7,867 in 2022, a 8.7% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a concerning trend. In 2010, there were 53 burglaries, which increased to 96 in 2017, before declining to 43 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 6.15 in 2010 to 5.47 in 2022, indicating a slight decrease relative to population. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased significantly, from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022, suggesting that while overall numbers decreased, the city's burglary problem grew relative to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed fluctuations over the years. It peaked at 383 incidents in 2016 but decreased to 291 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 37.71 in 2010 to 37.0 in 2022, despite the overall decrease in numbers. The city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.29% to 0.37% over the period, indicating a growing concentration of this crime type within the city relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. From 23 incidents in 2010, it rose to 48 in 2021 before slightly decreasing to 25 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.67 in 2010 to 3.18 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose dramatically from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, indicating that this crime type has become a more significant issue in the city compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare but showed an increase over time. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0 to 0.25. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0% to 0.33%, suggesting that arson has become a more notable concern in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $34,052 in 2013 to $55,007 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 64% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, which coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher home ownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, five years from now), we anticipate a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in total property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 40-45 cases per year, larceny thefts may continue to decrease slightly to around 270-280 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could fluctuate between 25-30 cases per year. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but present, potentially averaging 1-2 cases annually.
In summary, Sullivan has shown a mixed but generally improving picture of property crime over the past decade. While some crime types like motor vehicle theft and arson have seen increases relative to state averages, overall property crime has decreased. The correlation with rising median incomes and home ownership rates suggests that continued economic improvement and community investment could further reduce property crime rates in the coming years. However, targeted efforts to address specific crime types, particularly motor vehicle theft and burglary, may be necessary to bring these in line with state averages.
