Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Stevensville, Montana: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Stevensville, Montana, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 55.8% from 43 incidents in 2010 to 19 in 2021. Concurrently, the population grew by 13.9%, from 5,683 in 2010 to 6,477 in 2021, suggesting a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. The number of burglaries decreased from 4 in 2010 to 1 in 2021, a 75% reduction. However, this trend was not linear, with peaks of 9 incidents in 2016 and 8 in 2017 and 2018. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, peaking at 0.50% in 2018 before dropping to 0.07% in 2021. This volatility suggests localized factors influencing burglary rates rather than broader state-wide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 37 in 2010 to 17 in 2021, a 54.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.51 in 2010 to 2.62 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained relatively stable, averaging around 0.15% throughout the period, indicating that local trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a fluctuating but ultimately decreasing trend. From 2 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 1 in 2021, with several years (2017-2019) reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.35 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied widely, from 0.32% in 2012 to 0% in multiple years, suggesting that this crime type is particularly susceptible to local conditions or prevention efforts.
Arson cases were rare, with only sporadic occurrences. The city reported 1 incident in 2010, 2013, and 2014, and zero incidents in all other years. This translates to a rate that never exceeded 0.18 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson cases was notable in years with incidents, reaching 1.82% in 2010 and 1.52% in 2013 and 2014, indicating that even single incidents can significantly impact the city's share of state totals for less common crimes.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $46,100 in 2013 to $70,287 in 2021, property crimes per 1,000 residents fell from 5.17 to 2.93. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing (increasing from 69% in 2013 to 73% in 2021) and reduced property crime rates, potentially indicating that higher home ownership rates contribute to community stability and lower crime.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Stevensville may see further reductions in property crime rates. Burglaries could potentially decrease to near-zero levels, while larceny theft might stabilize around 10-12 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, possibly averaging less than one incident per year. Arson is expected to remain a rare occurrence.
In summary, Stevensville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable home ownership rates, suggest a community that has become increasingly secure over the past decade. While fluctuations in specific crime categories highlight the need for continued vigilance, the overall trajectory points towards a safer Stevensville in the coming years.
