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Property Crime Trends in Steele, Missouri: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Steele, Missouri, a small urban center, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of declining population. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased by 32.6%, from 95 to 64 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 18.7%, from 3,297 to 2,682 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 40 burglaries reported, which dropped to 16 by 2021, representing a 60% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 12.13 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 5.97 per 1,000 in 2021. Despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.07% and 0.12% of the state total. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the trend is somewhat consistent with state-wide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 53 in 2010 to 43 in 2021, a 18.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 16.07 in 2010 to 16.03 in 2021, due to the population decrease outpacing the crime reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.04% to 0.07% over the years, indicating that local trends are generally in line with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown some variability but with an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which increased to 5 in 2021, representing a 150% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.61 in 2010 to 1.86 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.04%, suggesting that local increases may be outpacing state-wide trends.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one reported incident in 2013, representing 0.13% of state arson cases that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to establish any meaningful trends for this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,524 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,240 in 2021, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime opportunities. Additionally, the increase in median income from $29,153 in 2013 to $37,716 in 2021 coincides with the overall decrease in property crime, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, burglaries are expected to further decline, potentially reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft is projected to remain the predominant property crime but with a slight downward trend. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or show a modest increase, reflecting recent upticks. Arson cases are expected to remain rare and sporadic.
In summary, Steele has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This trend has occurred alongside population decline and improvements in median income. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime figures has remained relatively stable, suggesting that local trends are largely consistent with broader regional patterns. Moving forward, the city is poised to see continued improvements in property crime rates, with the potential for further reductions in burglary and larceny-theft incidents.
