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Property Crime Trends in State College: Home of Penn State Sees Significant Reductions
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
State College, Pennsylvania, home to Penn State University's main campus, experienced a significant decline in property crime from 2010 to 2019. During this period, total property crime incidents dropped from 892 to 548, representing a 38.6% decrease. This reduction occurred despite a slight population growth from 41,861 to 42,254, an increase of about 0.9%.
Burglary rates in State College showed a substantial downward trend over the decade. In 2010, there were 111 burglaries, which decreased to 36 by 2019, a 67.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.65 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.85 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.43% in 2010, peaking at 0.5% in 2011, and then dropping to 0.24% by 2018 before rising to 1.5% in 2019. This overall decline suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also showed a declining trend. Incidents decreased from 769 in 2010 to 497 in 2019, a 35.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 18.37 in 2010 to 11.76 in 2019. Interestingly, while the number of incidents decreased, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.99% in 2010 to 5.31% in 2019, indicating a potentially slower decline compared to other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in State College remained relatively low throughout the decade, with some fluctuation. The number of incidents dropped from 12 in 2010 to 5 in 2018 but then increased to 15 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.12 in 2018, then rising to 0.35 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 1.52% in 2019, suggesting a relative increase compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city showed an overall decline, from 18 incidents in 2010 to 3 in 2019, an 83.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.43 in 2010 to 0.07 in 2019. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated, starting at 2.98% in 2010, peaking at 2.18% in 2013, and then declining to 2.7% by 2019, indicating a generally consistent trend with state levels.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $34,910 in 2013 to $37,389 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 707 to 548. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing units and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 20% in 2013 to 25% in 2019, property crimes generally declined.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, State College may see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 20-25 incidents per year, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 400-450 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts and arsons are likely to remain low, possibly averaging 5-10 and 2-4 incidents per year, respectively.
In summary, State College has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2019, despite a slight population increase. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes and increased home ownership, suggests a generally improving safety and economic environment in the city. However, the unexpected increases in certain crime categories in 2019 warrant continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies to maintain and further improve these positive trends.
