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Property Crime Trends in St. Peter, Minnesota: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. Peter, located in Minnesota, has experienced notable changes in property crime trends over the past decade, alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased significantly from 248 to 97, representing a 60.89% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 12,080 to 13,209, an increase of 9.35%.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which decreased to 7 in 2022, marking a 75% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.32 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.21% in 2014 before dropping to 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the reduction may be part of a broader statewide trend.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 215 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 88 in 2022, a 59.07% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 17.80 in 2010 to 6.66 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.27% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but shows an overall decreasing trend. From 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 12 in 2011 before dropping to 2 in 2022, a 60% decrease from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, reaching a high of 0.18% in 2011 before falling to 0.01% in 2022, suggesting significant improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with several years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of arsons was 4 in 2022, up from 3 in 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.30 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons has varied dramatically, from 0% in several years to a high of 0.83% in 2018, indicating that even small changes in local numbers can significantly affect the city's proportion of state totals due to the low frequency of this crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $60,506 in 2013 to $73,171 in 2021, property crimes decreased from 237 to 130 during the same period. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the slight decrease in the percentage of white residents, which fell from 88% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, suggesting changing demographics may influence crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we can expect the downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trajectory, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 15-20%, reaching around 80-85 incidents annually by 2029. This prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.
In summary, St. Peter has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, outpacing population growth and showing improvements across most categories. The most dramatic reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while arson remains a sporadic concern. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and changing demographics, paint a picture of a city evolving positively in terms of public safety. As the community continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these positive trends will likely require ongoing adaptation of crime prevention strategies and community engagement efforts.
