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Property Crime Trends in St. Pauls, North Carolina: A Decade of Decline and Economic Correlation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. Pauls, North Carolina, is a small community that has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 28%, from 107 to 77 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 8.7%, from 4,410 to 4,026 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to just 6 in 2022, representing an 82.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.71 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.49 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures also decreased, from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated but ultimately decreased over the observed period. In 2010, there were 73 larceny-theft cases, which decreased to 67 in 2022, an 8.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 16.55 in 2010 to 16.64 in 2022 due to the population decrease. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This trend indicates that while overall numbers have decreased, larceny-theft remains a persistent issue in relation to the city's population.
Motor vehicle theft data shows an increase from no reported incidents in most years to 4 cases in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.99 per 1,000 residents in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures rose from 0% in most years to 0.03% in 2022. While the absolute numbers are small, this increase suggests a need for heightened awareness and prevention measures for vehicle security.
Arson cases in the city have remained low but consistent, with 1 incident reported in most years, including 2010 and 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2022 due to population decrease. The city's contribution to state arson figures fluctuated, ranging from 0.09% to 0.24%, settling at 0.11% in 2022. The persistence of arson, albeit at low levels, may warrant targeted fire safety and prevention programs.
An examination of correlations reveals a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $32,271 in 2013 to $37,756 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 79 to 77. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at their current low levels, while larceny-theft may see a slight decrease. Motor vehicle theft could potentially increase marginally if recent trends continue, but should remain relatively low. Arson incidents are predicted to remain stable at around 1 case per year.
In summary, St. Pauls has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries. The inverse correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic improvements may be a factor in reducing property crime. While challenges remain, particularly with larceny-theft and the recent uptick in motor vehicle thefts, the overall trend points towards a safer community. Continued focus on economic development and targeted crime prevention strategies could further enhance public safety in St. Pauls.
