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Property Crime Trends in St. Francis, Minnesota: A Decade of Change in a Growing Suburban Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. Francis, Minnesota, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 134 in 2010, peaking at 167 in 2012, and then declining to 113 in 2022, representing a 15.7% decrease over the 12-year period. Concurrently, the population grew steadily from 8,382 in 2010 to 9,650 in 2022, a 15.1% increase, setting the stage for a nuanced analysis of crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 16 burglaries, which increased to 26 in 2012 before dropping to just 9 in 2022, a 43.8% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.91 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this crime category. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.13% over the years, suggesting that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a downward trend. From 113 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 131 in 2012 before declining to 94 in 2022, a 16.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 13.48 in 2010 to 9.74 in 2022, reflecting an improvement in public safety relative to population growth. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained fairly consistent, ranging from 0.07% to 0.15%, indicating that local efforts to reduce this crime type were generally in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations but ultimately increased over the period. From 5 incidents in 2010, it rose to 10 in 2022, a 100% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 0.60 in 2010 to 1.04 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0.02% to 0.14%, with no clear trend, suggesting that local factors may have influenced these fluctuations independently of state trends.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively rare. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 4 per year, with no clear trend. The highest number (4) occurred in 2011 and 2020, representing 0.65% and 0.63% of state arsons respectively. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends or their relationship to population growth.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 359 per square mile in 2010 to 413 in 2022, overall property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $69,259 in 2013 to $84,634 in 2022, coinciding with a general decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions contributed to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends over the next seven years (to 2029, representing five years from now) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Based on historical data and current trajectories, we can project that by 2029: Total property crimes may decrease to around 90-100 incidents per year. Burglaries could potentially stabilize at 7-8 cases annually. Larceny theft might continue its gradual decline to approximately 75-80 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate but are likely to remain in the range of 8-12 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, St. Francis has experienced a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly when accounting for population growth. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and larceny theft, while motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase relative to population. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and steady population growth, paint a picture of a city that has made strides in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring a safe and prosperous community in the years to come.
