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Property Crime Trends in St. Florian, Alabama: A Study of Growth and Shifting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. Florian, Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased slightly from 18 to 22, representing a 22.2% increase. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 3,071 to 3,890, a 26.7% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which doubled to 6 in 2011. By 2022, this number had decreased to 2. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.98 in 2010 to 0.51 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to overall state burglary figures despite the decrease in raw numbers.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed an upward trend. Incidents increased from 12 in 2010 to 19 in 2022, a 58.3% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased only slightly from 3.91 in 2010 to 4.88 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft doubled from 0.02% to 0.04% over this period, suggesting a growing share of state-wide incidents.
Motor vehicle theft incidents remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 3 in 2010 to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.98 to 0.26, indicating a significant improvement relative to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.05% to 0.01%, showing a positive trend in this category.
Arson data is limited, with no reported cases in the available years. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern in the city, though the lack of data prevents a thorough analysis of trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 703 per square mile in 2010 to 890 in 2022, total property crimes also rose. Additionally, the rise in median income from $65,269 in 2013 to $79,054 in 2022 coincided with the increase in larceny-theft incidents, possibly indicating more valuable targets for theft.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), St. Florian may see: - A slight decrease in burglaries to 1-2 incidents annually - An increase in larceny-theft to approximately 23-25 incidents - Motor vehicle theft remaining low at 1-2 incidents - Total property crimes potentially reaching 26-28 annually
In summary, St. Florian has experienced a modest increase in property crimes, primarily driven by larceny-theft, while seeing improvements in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. The city's growth and increasing affluence may be contributing factors to these trends. Despite the increases, the overall crime rates remain relatively low, and the city's share of state-wide property crimes remains small, indicating a generally safe environment with room for targeted improvements in theft prevention.
