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Property Crime Trends in St. Elmo, Illinois: A Study of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. Elmo, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over recent years. From 2014 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 44 incidents in 2016 before declining to 19 in 2019, representing a 56.8% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the city's population decreased from 2,629 in 2014 to 2,424 in 2019, a 7.8% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city showed considerable volatility. In 2014, there were 2 burglaries, rising sharply to 15 in 2016, before dropping to 4 in 2019. This translates to a burglary rate per 1,000 residents increasing from 0.76 in 2014 to 6.41 in 2016, then declining to 1.65 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries rose from 0.01% in 2014 to 0.04% in 2016, settling at 0.02% in 2019. This fluctuation suggests periods of heightened vulnerability followed by improved security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, displayed a similar pattern of fluctuation. Incidents rose from 12 in 2014 to 27 in 2016, before decreasing to 15 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 4.56 in 2014 to 11.55 in 2016, then fell to 6.19 in 2019. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.02% during this period. These trends indicate that while larceny-theft remains a concern, recent years have seen some improvement in controlling this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but showed some variation. From 1 incident in 2014, it peaked at 3 in 2017, before dropping to 0 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 1.31 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.02% during this period. These low numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a major issue in the city, though the fluctuations indicate the need for continued vigilance.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as 0 from 2014 to 2019, indicating that this particular crime is not a significant concern for the city. The absence of arson cases suggests effective fire prevention measures and potentially strong community awareness about fire safety.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the city's population density decreased from 1,772 per square mile in 2014 to 1,634 in 2019, there was a corresponding overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $35,389 in 2014 to $46,073 in 2019, a 30.2% increase, which coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes. This correlation might indicate that improved economic conditions could be associated with lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that property crime rates in St. Elmo may continue to decline moderately over the next five years (up to 2029). The city might expect to see total property crimes potentially decrease by 10-15% from 2019 levels, assuming current demographic and economic trends continue.
In summary, St. Elmo has experienced fluctuating but generally improving property crime trends from 2014 to 2019. The most significant changes were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates, which peaked in 2016 but showed substantial improvement by 2019. The correlation between rising median income, decreasing population density, and declining crime rates suggests that economic improvement and demographic changes may play a role in reducing property crimes. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and community safety initiatives could help sustain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
