Property Crime Trends in St. Clair, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement Amid Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
St. Clair, Missouri, a small urban center with an area of 4.78 square miles, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 32.1%, from 293 to 199 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a slight decrease of 0.4%, from 7,333 to 7,303 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 48 burglaries, which decreased to 20 in 2022, representing a 58.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.5 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.7 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.06% and 0.27% over the years, with the highest percentage occurring in 2021 at 0.27%.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. In 2010, there were 227 larceny thefts, which decreased to 154 in 2022, a 32.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 30.9 in 2010 to 21.1 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts remained relatively consistent, ranging from 0.20% to 0.30% throughout the period.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 18 incidents, which increased to 25 in 2022, a 38.9% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.5 in 2010 to 3.4 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.09% and 0.23%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2015 at 0.23%.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. The data shows only one reported case each in 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2021. This inconsistency makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. The city's contribution to state arson cases ranged from 0% to 0.15% when incidents occurred.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $32,963 in 2013 to $46,687 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. For instance, in 2013, there were 315 property crimes with a median income of $32,963, while in 2022, there were 199 property crimes with a median income of $46,687.
Population density shows a weak positive correlation with property crime rates. As density fluctuated between 1,474 and 1,552 people per square mile over the years, property crime rates tended to follow a similar pattern, albeit with some exceptions.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in St. Clair may continue to decline moderately. Burglary and larceny theft are likely to see further reductions, potentially reaching around 15 burglaries and 130 larceny thefts annually. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase, potentially reaching around 28 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In conclusion, St. Clair has shown overall improvement in its property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that economic improvements may have contributed to this positive trend. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued attention from local law enforcement. These trends, if sustained, could lead to a safer community environment in the coming years.
