Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Spring Hope: A Study of Fluctuating Rates in a Small North Carolina Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Spring Hope, a small town in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2015, the town experienced fluctuations in its total number of property crimes, starting at 40 in 2010 and ending at 31 in 2015, representing a 22.5% decrease. During this same period, the population experienced a slight decline, from 3,905 in 2010 to 3,725 in 2015, a decrease of 4.6%.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries, which decreased to 9 in 2012, but then spiked to 27 in 2013 before dropping sharply to 3 in 2014 and rising again to 12 in 2015. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 3.59 in 2010 to 3.22 in 2015, with a peak of 7.43 per 1,000 in 2013. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, from 0.03% in 2010 to a high of 0.06% in 2013, before settling at 0.04% in 2015. These fluctuations suggest periodic spikes in burglary activity that may warrant targeted prevention efforts.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a general downward trend. From 22 cases in 2010, the number increased slightly to 25 in 2011, then decreased to 13 in 2014 before rising to 18 in 2015. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.63 in 2010 to 4.83 in 2015. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained steady at 0.02% for most years, indicating that local trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained low throughout the period. There were 4 incidents in 2010, dropping to zero in 2011 and 2014, with single incidents reported in 2012, 2013, and 2015. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.02 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2015. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.04%, suggesting that this type of crime is not a significant issue for the community.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2015, indicating that this particular crime is not a prevalent concern in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income decreased from $44,291 in 2013 to $39,524 in 2015, property crime incidents increased from 44 to 31 during the same period. However, the relationship is not strong enough to definitively conclude causation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that property crime rates may continue to fluctuate but generally remain stable over the next five years (up to 2029). The city might expect to see property crime incidents ranging between 25 to 35 annually, assuming no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Spring Hope has experienced fluctuating property crime rates, with burglary showing the most variability. Larceny-theft has shown a general decline, while motor vehicle theft and arson remain low-frequency occurrences. The city's contribution to state-wide property crimes remains relatively small, indicating that local law enforcement efforts may be effective in maintaining lower crime rates compared to other areas in North Carolina.
