Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen a complete elimination based on the available data. In 2011, there were 4 reported cases, which decreased to zero by 2022. This resulted in a drop from 1.06 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2011 to none in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also decreased from 0.04% to 0%, suggesting a more significant improvement compared to state-wide figures.

Arson cases in the city have remained low but consistent. Both 2011 and 2022 reported one case of arson. However, due to population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.27 in 2011 to 0.26 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arson cases remained the same at 0.11% in both years, indicating that the city's arson trend aligns with state-wide patterns.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $50,020 in 2013 to $69,709 in 2022, a 39.4% rise, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 69% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes, which might indicate that higher home ownership rates contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and assuming current trends persist, we might expect to see total property crimes potentially dropping to around 50-55 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries could potentially decrease to 5-6 cases annually, while larceny-theft might reduce to approximately 45-50 incidents. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain very low or at zero, given the recent trends. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic, potentially occurring once every few years.

In summary, Southport has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2011 to 2022, with improvements across all categories. This positive trend, coupled with increasing median income and home ownership rates, suggests a potentially improving quality of life for residents. However, the city's share of state-wide crime in some categories has remained stable or slightly increased, indicating that while progress has been made, there's still room for continued focus on crime prevention strategies to further improve public safety in the coming years.