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Property Crime Trends in Southern Shores: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Southern Shores in North Carolina presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 65 incidents in 2011 to just 10 in 2022, representing an 84.6% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 3,037 in 2011 to 3,157 in 2022, a 3.9% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2011, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to only 3 in 2022, marking an 88% reduction. When adjusted for population, this translates to a drop from 8.23 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.95 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.05% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that burglary rates in the city improved more rapidly than the state average. This significant reduction suggests enhanced security measures or improved community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend. In 2011, there were 39 larceny-thefts reported, which decreased to 6 in 2022, representing an 84.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.84 in 2011 to 1.90 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.03% to 0.01% over this period. This substantial decrease in larceny-theft rates points to effective crime prevention strategies and possibly increased community awareness.
Motor vehicle theft trends fluctuated but remained relatively low throughout the period. In 2011, there was 1 reported case, and in 2022, there was also 1 case. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently low, at 0.33 in 2011 and 0.32 in 2022. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2022, suggesting that while the city maintained low rates, state figures might have improved more significantly.
Arson incidents were sporadic and rare in the city. Only in 2012 were there any reported cases, with 2 incidents that year. This represented 0.18% of state arson cases for that year. In all other years from 2011 to 2022, no arson cases were reported, indicating that arson is not a persistent problem in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong inverse correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates. As the median income increased from $86,963 in 2013 to $104,451 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 57 to 10 during the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we can estimate that total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 5-7 incidents per year by 2029. However, this projection assumes that current socio-economic conditions and crime prevention measures remain consistent.
In summary, Southern Shores has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, paints a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while growing economically provides a model for other small towns looking to improve public safety and quality of life for their residents.
