Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 10 in 2010 to 34 in 2022, a 240% increase, the rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.59 to 1.67, a 183% increase. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.09% to 0.23%, suggesting that this type of crime has become a growing concern relative to other areas in the state.

Arson cases in Southern Pines have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. From 2 incidents in 2010 to 3 in 2022, there was a 50% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.12 to 0.15, a 25% rise. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.20% to 0.34%, indicating that arson has become a relatively larger issue in Southern Pines compared to the rest of the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 972 per square mile in 2010 to 1,157 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that higher density may not necessarily lead to increased crime in this case. There appears to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates, as income rose from $68,434 in 2013 to $75,614 in 2022, while crime rates generally declined.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend in property crimes to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglary and larceny theft are likely to see further reductions, potentially reaching around 50 and 180 incidents respectively by 2029. However, motor vehicle theft may continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 45-50 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 2-4 incidents per year.

In summary, Southern Pines has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This improvement has occurred despite significant population growth, suggesting effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the fluctuating arson rates indicate areas that may require focused attention in the coming years. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of Southern Pines' residents.