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Property Crime Trends in South Holland: A Tale of Decreasing Burglaries and Rising Motor Vehicle Thefts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
South Holland, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease of 13.9% from 483 in 2010 to 416 in 2022. During this same period, the population experienced a slight decline of 3%, from 24,041 in 2010 to 23,322 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant downward trend over the examined period. In 2010, there were 141 burglaries, which decreased to 31 in 2022, representing a 78% reduction. When normalized per 1,000 residents, the rate dropped from 5.87 to 1.33 burglaries. Interestingly, despite this substantial decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it largely kept pace with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents exhibited a less pronounced decline. In 2010, 304 larceny-thefts were reported, compared to 262 in 2022, a 13.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 12.65 to 11.23. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.18% to 0.26% over this period, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was not as substantial as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 38 motor vehicle thefts, which increased dramatically to 123 in 2022, a 223.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.58 to 5.27. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.16% to 0.43%, suggesting that this crime category became a more pronounced issue in the city compared to state averages.
Arson incidents remained relatively low and stable, with 2 cases reported in both 2010 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 0.08 to 0.09. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0.19% to 0.30%, indicating a minor increase in the city's contribution to statewide arson statistics.
Examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between property crime trends and racial distribution. As the Black population percentage increased from 74% in 2013 to 79% in 2019, property crimes also rose from 416 to 574 during the same period. However, this correlation weakened in subsequent years as the Black population percentage decreased to 74% in 2022, while property crimes remained at 416.
Another significant correlation is observed between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $62,513 in 2013 to $70,549 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crimes from 416 to 416 over the same period, suggesting a potential stabilizing effect of increased income on crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the observed patterns. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching as low as 20 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is projected to remain relatively stable, hovering around 250-270 incidents annually. The most concerning projection is for motor vehicle theft, which may continue to rise, potentially reaching 150-160 incidents per year if current trends persist. Arson is expected to remain low, with 1-3 incidents per year.
In summary, South Holland has shown mixed results in its property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. While burglaries have significantly decreased and larceny-theft has shown moderate improvement, the sharp rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a growing challenge. The correlations between crime rates, racial demographics, and median income suggest complex socioeconomic factors at play. As the city moves forward, addressing the surge in motor vehicle thefts while maintaining the positive trends in other categories will be crucial for improving overall public safety and quality of life for its residents.
