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Property Crime Trends in Somersworth: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Somersworth, a small city in New Hampshire, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 546 to 245, representing a 55.1% reduction. During the same period, the population increased from 11,809 to 11,994, a growth of 1.6%.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 61 burglaries, which dropped to 10 in 2022, marking an 83.6% decrease. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.17 in 2010 to 0.83 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 3.85% in 2014 before declining to 1.81% in 2022. This downward trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant reduction. In 2010, there were 480 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 218 in 2022, a 54.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 40.65 in 2010 to 18.18 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, ranging from 3.18% to 5.45% over the years. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing larceny-theft, it remains a consistent contributor to the state's overall larceny-theft statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more variability. There were 5 incidents in 2010, which increased to 17 in 2022, a 240% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.42 in 2010 to 1.42 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 1.27% in 2010 to 3.17% in 2022. This trend indicates that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the city, potentially requiring targeted interventions.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but remained relatively low. There were 6 cases in 2010, which decreased to 2 in 2022, a 66.7% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.51 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases varied significantly, from a low of 1.3% in 2015 to a high of 9.52% in 2016, settling at 3.17% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that arson incidents, while infrequent, can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they occur.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $59,081 in 2013 to $69,584 in 2022, the total property crime rate decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially increasing slightly or stabilizing at current levels. Larceny-theft is expected to continue its downward trend, while burglary rates are likely to remain low or decrease further.
In summary, Somersworth has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's efforts in crime prevention and community safety appear to be yielding positive results, as evidenced by the substantial decrease in total property crimes over the past decade. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
