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Property Crime Trends in Snow Hill, North Carolina: A Decade of Fluctuation and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Snow Hill, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2013 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 60 to 38, representing a 36.67% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 4,913 to 4,506, a 8.28% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable variations. In 2013, there were 17 burglaries, which dropped to a low of 5 in 2020 before rising to 15 in 2022. This represents a 3.46 per 1,000 people rate in 2013, decreasing to 1.21 per 1,000 in 2020, and then increasing to 3.33 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, from 0.04% in 2013 to a peak of 0.09% in 2019, settling at 0.06% in 2022. These changes suggest varying levels of property security concerns within the community over time.
Larceny-theft incidents have generally decreased over the years. From 43 cases in 2013 (8.75 per 1,000 people), the number dropped to 22 in 2022 (4.88 per 1,000 people), a 48.84% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05% throughout the period. This downward trend in larceny-theft may indicate improved community vigilance or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been consistently low, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 1 case in 2016, 2020, 2021, and 2022, representing 0.22 thefts per 1,000 people in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained at or below 0.02% throughout the period. These figures suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only two years reporting incidents: 3 cases in 2015 (0.70 per 1,000 people) and 1 case in 2018 (0.26 per 1,000 people). In 2015, the city accounted for 0.45% of state arson cases, dropping to 0.20% in 2018. The infrequency of arson cases indicates that it is not a persistent problem in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 3,193 per square mile in 2013 to 2,928 in 2022, the overall property crime rate also showed a general decline. However, the relationship is not consistently strong across all years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on recent trends, burglaries may continue to fluctuate but remain below 20 cases annually. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 25-30 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, with 0-2 cases annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In summary, Snow Hill has seen an overall decrease in property crimes over the past decade, despite some fluctuations. The most significant reductions were observed in larceny-theft, while burglary rates have been more variable. Motor vehicle theft and arson remain infrequent occurrences. These trends, coupled with the population decline, suggest a changing dynamic in the community that may be influencing crime patterns. As the city moves forward, continued monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.
