Motor vehicle theft in Smyrna has seen a substantial increase. In 2010, there were 32 reported cases, which rose to 135 by 2022, a 321.9% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.56 to 1.74, a 210.7% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.3% to 0.76%, suggesting a faster growth in this crime category compared to the state average.

Arson cases in Smyrna have fluctuated but generally decreased over time. From 10 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 2 in 2022, an 80% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.17 to 0.03, a decline of 82.4%. The city's contribution to state arson cases fell from 1.32% to 0.37%, indicating a significant improvement in arson prevention relative to the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 1,699 per square mile in 2010 to 2,291 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in overall property crimes, particularly larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. This suggests that increased urbanization may be contributing to certain types of property crime.

The median income in Smyrna rose from $66,634 in 2013 to $72,755 in 2022, an increase of 9.2%. During this period, burglary rates decreased significantly, which could indicate that improved economic conditions may be associated with reduced burglary incidents.

The percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 71% in 2013 to 66% in 2022. This decline in homeownership coincides with the increase in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, suggesting a possible correlation between reduced property ownership and certain types of property crime.

Racial demographics have also shifted, with the white population decreasing from 76% in 2013 to 65% in 2022, while the Black population increased from 9% to 14%, and the Asian population from 3% to 5%. These demographic changes have occurred alongside the observed property crime trends, but a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that if current trends continue: Burglary rates are likely to continue decreasing, potentially reaching less than 50 incidents per year. Larceny theft may stabilize or show a slight increase, potentially reaching around 950-1000 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft could continue to rise, possibly exceeding 150 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with possibly 1-3 incidents annually.

In summary, Smyrna has experienced a significant shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglary and arson rates have decreased substantially, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft have increased. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of population growth, increasing population density, rising median income, and evolving racial demographics. The city's law enforcement and policymakers may need to focus on strategies to address the rising trends in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive momentum in reducing burglaries and arson incidents.