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Property Crime Trends in Smyrna, Georgia: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Smyrna, Georgia, a vibrant city located in Cobb County, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Smyrna decreased by 33.3%, from 1,401 to 934 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 14.5%, from 69,231 to 79,289 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2011, there were 381 burglaries reported, which dropped to 109 cases by 2022, representing a remarkable 71.4% decrease. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.5 in 2011 to 1.4 in 2022, a 74.5% reduction. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It rose from 1.08% in 2011 to 2.04% in 2020, before declining to 1.16% in 2022. This suggests that while Smyrna improved its burglary situation, it did so at a slower pace than the state average in some years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant downturn. The number of incidents decreased from 915 in 2011 to 719 in 2022, a 21.4% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 13.2 in 2011 to 9.1 in 2022, a 31.1% decrease when accounting for population growth. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases increased from 0.9% in 2011 to 2.13% in 2020, before falling to 1.08% in 2022. This indicates that while larceny-theft decreased in Smyrna, it remained a persistent issue relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex pattern. The number of incidents remained relatively stable, with 105 cases in 2011 and 106 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased by 12.6%, from 1.52 in 2011 to 1.34 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly, from 0.87% in 2011 to a peak of 2.95% in 2020, before decreasing to 1.11% in 2022. This suggests that while Smyrna managed to keep its motor vehicle theft rate relatively stable, it became a more significant contributor to state totals in certain years.
Arson cases in Smyrna have been relatively low and variable over the years. The number of reported arsons decreased from 13 in 2011 to 0 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.19 in 2011 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated, peaking at 3.39% in 2011 and dropping to 0% in 2022. This indicates a positive trend in arson prevention within the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income in Smyrna increased from $74,662 in 2013 to $85,771 in 2022, a 14.9% rise, property crime rates showed a general downward trend. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased slightly from 52% in 2013 to 55% in 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating a link between homeownership and community safety.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on historical data, burglaries are projected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 80 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 650-700 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft may show a slight increase, potentially reaching 110-120 incidents per year. Arson cases are predicted to remain very low, with possibly 1-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Smyrna has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's efforts in crime prevention appear to be effective, especially when considering the concurrent population growth. The relationship between rising median income, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in community safety. As Smyrna continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends in property crime reduction will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
