Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 28 in 2010 to 53 in 2022, representing an 89.29% increase, the rate per 1,000 residents also rose from 1.47 to 2.79. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022. This suggests that the increase in motor vehicle thefts was part of a broader trend affecting the state as a whole.

Arson cases in the city have shown significant volatility. From 7 incidents in 2010, the number tripled to 21 in 2022, a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.37 to 1.11 over this period. More strikingly, the city's share of state arson cases jumped from 0.67% in 2010 to 3.42% in 2022, indicating that Sikeston experienced a disproportionate increase in arson compared to the rest of the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and overall property crime rates. As median income increased from $44,230 in 2013 to $49,581 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 972 to 568 during the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Population density shows a weak positive correlation with property crime rates. As density fluctuated between 1,114 people per square mile in 2010 and 1,107 in 2022, property crime rates generally followed a similar pattern, albeit with some exceptions.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts and arson cases may continue to pose challenges, potentially increasing if current trends persist.

In summary, Sikeston has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the sharp increase in arson cases present areas of concern. The correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a crucial role in further reducing criminal activity. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address the specific challenges of motor vehicle theft and arson, while maintaining the positive trends in other areas, will be key to enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents.