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Property Crime Trends in Sierra Madre: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sierra Madre, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 47.3%, from 186 to 98 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 2.7%, from 10,853 to 11,151 residents over the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 58 burglaries, which dropped to 34 by 2022, representing a 41.4% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.34 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.05 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% over the years. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, its improvement has been roughly in line with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 126 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 57 by 2022, marking a 54.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 11.61 in 2010 to 5.11 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained consistently low at 0.01% throughout most of the period, with occasional rises to 0.02%. This indicates that the city has maintained a relatively low profile in terms of larceny-theft within the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents fluctuated between 2 and 10 per year, with 7 recorded in 2022. This represents a 250% increase from 2010 to 2022, though the absolute numbers remain low. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.63 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has generally been minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.01%, suggesting that this type of crime remains relatively uncommon in the area.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. Most years recorded zero incidents, with occasional spikes of 1 or 2 cases. Given the low numbers, meaningful trends are difficult to establish. The city's contribution to state arson figures has fluctuated between 0% and 0.03%, indicating that arson is not a significant concern in the area.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $113,557 in 2013 to $113,872 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 129 to 98. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and property crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 70% in 2013 to 58% in 2022, and the Asian population increased from 11% to 18%, property crimes showed an overall declining trend. This could indicate changing community dynamics influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Sierra Madre may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 80-85 incidents per year. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 25-30 cases annually, while larceny-theft might stabilize at 50-55 incidents. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate but are likely to remain under 10 cases per year.
In conclusion, Sierra Madre has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred despite modest population growth, suggesting effective crime prevention strategies or improved socioeconomic conditions. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains minimal across all categories, indicating a relatively safe environment compared to state averages. As the community continues to evolve demographically and economically, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the city's future safety and quality of life.
