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Property Crime Trends in Shrewsbury, Missouri: A Tale of Disproportionate Increases
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Shrewsbury, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 164.29%, rising from 112 to 296 incidents. This significant uptick occurred alongside a population growth of 4.59%, from 6,190 to 6,474 residents during the same period.
Burglary trends in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries, which decreased to 11 by 2022, representing a 35.29% decline. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 2.75 to 1.70 incidents per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% to 0.08% over the same period. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they may have declined more rapidly at the state level.
Larceny theft has seen a substantial increase, rising from 88 incidents in 2010 to 242 in 2022, marking a 175% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 14.22 to 37.38, indicating a significant rise in theft relative to population growth. Moreover, the city's contribution to state larceny theft increased dramatically from 0.08% to 0.31%, suggesting that this trend may be more pronounced in Shrewsbury compared to other parts of Missouri.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal a concerning uptick. In 2010, there were 7 incidents, which increased to 43 by 2022, representing a 514.29% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 1.13 to 6.64. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose significantly from 0.05% to 0.18%, indicating that this issue has become more prevalent in Shrewsbury relative to the state average.
Arson incidents have been sporadic and relatively low. The data shows only one incident in 2010 and two in 2015, with no reported cases in other years. This makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or make meaningful comparisons to population or state percentages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in property crimes and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased from 87% in 2013 to 77% in 2022, total property crimes increased. Additionally, the rise in property crimes coincides with a slight decrease in homeownership, which fell from 65% in 2013 to 63% in 2022. The median income increased from $64,796 in 2013 to $66,505 in 2022, but this modest growth does not seem to have mitigated the rise in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of property crimes to continue increasing, potentially reaching around 400-450 incidents annually. Larceny theft is likely to remain the dominant category, possibly accounting for over 300 of these incidents. Motor vehicle thefts may continue their sharp upward trend, potentially doubling again to around 80-90 incidents per year. Burglaries might stabilize or slightly decrease, hovering around 8-10 incidents annually.
In summary, Shrewsbury has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. These trends coincide with demographic shifts and slight changes in economic indicators. The city's growing share of state crime percentages in these categories suggests that local factors may be driving these increases more than broader state trends. As the community looks toward the future, addressing these rising property crime rates, especially in theft-related offenses, will likely be a key priority for local law enforcement and policymakers.
