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Property Crime Trends in Shelby, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Shelby, located in Ohio, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically from 378 to 124, representing a 67.2% reduction. This substantial drop in crime occurred against the backdrop of a slight population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 9.3% from 13,796 in 2010 to 12,513 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a noteworthy downward trend. In 2010, there were 87 burglaries, which decreased to 15 by 2022, marking an 82.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.31 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.20 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, starting at 0.11% in 2010, peaking at 0.18% in 2014, and ultimately declining to 0.07% by 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or law enforcement strategies within the city.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a declining trend. The number of cases dropped from 282 in 2010 to 106 in 2022, a 62.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 20.44 in 2010 to 8.47 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases initially increased from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2012 but then decreased to 0.10% by 2022. This trend indicates a significant improvement in preventing theft-related crimes within the city.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 9 cases in 2010, it dropped to 3 cases in 2022, a 66.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.65 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, with some years reporting no cases. This trend suggests effective measures in deterring vehicle-related crimes.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. From 2 cases in 2010, it varied between 0 and 3 cases annually, ending with 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained consistently low, ranging from 0 to 0.23 over the period. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied significantly, from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022, with several years reporting no cases. This fluctuation might be due to the low number of incidents, where small changes can lead to large percentage shifts.
A strong correlation is observed between the decline in property crimes and the slight decrease in population density. As the population density dropped from 2,185 per square mile in 2010 to 1,982 in 2022, the overall property crime rate also decreased. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the increase in median income and the decrease in property crimes. The median income rose from $47,400 in 2013 to $53,264 in 2022, coinciding with the period of significant crime reduction.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes in the city could potentially decrease further to around 80-90 cases annually. Burglaries might stabilize at 10-12 cases per year, larceny-theft could reduce to approximately 70-75 cases, motor vehicle theft might remain low at 1-2 cases annually, and arson cases are likely to stay between 0-2 per year.
In conclusion, Shelby has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade. The significant reductions across all categories of property crime, coupled with economic improvements and demographic stability, paint a picture of a city that has effectively addressed safety concerns. These trends, if continued, suggest a positive outlook for the city's safety and quality of life in the coming years.
