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Property Crime Trends in Shavano Park, Texas: A Study of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Shavano Park, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 94 incidents in 2012 to 73 in 2022, representing a 22.3% reduction. Concurrently, the population grew from 5,046 in 2010 to 5,793 in 2022, a 14.8% increase, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2012, there were 19 burglaries, which decreased to just 5 in 2022, marking a 73.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.81 in 2012 to 0.86 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively stable, consistently around 0.01% of the state total, indicating that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, exhibited fluctuations but an overall declining trend. From a peak of 72 incidents in 2012, it decreased to 57 in 2022, a 20.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 14.45 in 2012 to 9.84 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny theft remained steady at about 0.01%, suggesting that local efforts to combat this crime have been relatively effective compared to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a concerning increase in recent years. From just 1 incident in 2014, the number rose to 11 in 2022, a 1000% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.21 in 2014 to 1.90 in 2022. Despite this local increase, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained low at 0.01%, indicating that this trend may be part of a broader regional or state-wide phenomenon.
Arson cases in the city have been consistently low, with zero reported incidents from 2010 to 2022. This stability suggests effective fire prevention measures and low incidence of intentional property damage by fire.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income decreased from $126,733 in 2013 to $111,423 in 2022, property crimes showed an overall increase, particularly in recent years. Additionally, the decline in owner-occupied housing from 85% in 2013 to 74% in 2022 correlates with the increase in certain property crimes, especially motor vehicle theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of recent patterns. Burglary rates are likely to remain low or decrease further, while larceny theft may stabilize around current levels. However, motor vehicle theft could continue its upward trend if current factors persist.
In summary, Shavano Park has demonstrated mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglary and larceny theft have shown overall declines, the recent surge in motor vehicle theft warrants attention. The correlation between decreasing median income, lower home ownership rates, and increasing property crimes suggests that economic factors may play a significant role in shaping the city's crime landscape. As the community continues to grow and evolve, addressing these socioeconomic factors could be key to maintaining and improving public safety in the coming years.
