Motor vehicle theft in Selma showed a significant upward trend, rising from 6 cases in 2010 to 33 in 2022, a 450% increase. Despite this large percentage increase, the actual number of incidents remains relatively low. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.01 in 2010 to 2.47 in 2022, a 144.6% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.01% to 0.04%, indicating that Selma's contribution to state totals increased more rapidly than its population growth in this category.

Arson cases in Selma have been sporadic and low in number. The city reported no arson cases in most years, with isolated incidents in 2012, 2018, 2019, and a peak of 3 cases in 2021. Due to the low numbers, calculating meaningful trends or rates per 1,000 residents is challenging. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.13% in 2021, but generally remained very low or nonexistent in most years.

Examining correlations reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 1,189 per square mile in 2010 to 2,664 in 2022, overall property crime rates per capita decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved security measures. The median income rose from $78,247 in 2013 to $89,602 in 2022, potentially correlating with the overall decrease in crime rates per capita. However, the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 67% in 2013 to 55% in 2022, which could have influenced the slight uptick in certain property crimes in recent years.

Racial demographics shifted significantly, with the white population decreasing from 52% in 2013 to 32% in 2022, while the Black population increased from 7% to 22%, and the Asian population from 3% to 6%. These demographic changes coincided with fluctuations in property crime rates, but a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further study.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Selma may experience: - A continued slight decrease in burglary rates, potentially reaching around 18-20 cases annually. - A stabilization or slight increase in larceny-theft cases, possibly reaching 280-300 incidents per year. - A potential continued increase in motor vehicle thefts, possibly reaching 40-45 cases annually. - Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low, with 0-2 cases per year.

In conclusion, Selma, Texas has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite its rapid population growth. The most significant discoveries include the substantial decrease in per capita burglary and larceny-theft rates, contrasted with an increase in motor vehicle thefts. The city's evolving demographics, increasing median income, and changing housing ownership patterns have coincided with these crime trends. As Selma continues to grow, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies and adapting to the changing urban landscape will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these trends in property crime management.