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Property Crime Trends in Seligman, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Seligman, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease of 6.25% from 16 incidents in 2010 to 15 in 2022. During this same period, the population saw a slight growth of 0.74%, increasing from 1,486 in 2010 to 1,497 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries reported, which peaked at 8 incidents in 2015, representing a 166.67% increase. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to just 1 incident, a 66.67% reduction from 2010 levels. When considering population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 2.02 in 2010 to a high of 4.94 in 2015, before dropping to 0.67 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.04% over the years, with the highest percentage occurring in 2020.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also exhibited notable changes. Starting with 13 incidents in 2010, it reached a peak of 32 in 2017, marking a 146.15% increase. By 2022, larceny-theft had returned to 13 incidents, matching the 2010 figure. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 8.75 in 2010 to a high of 18.49 in 2017, settling at 8.68 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.03%, with the highest percentage in 2016 and 2017.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively low but variable. There were no reported incidents in 2010, 2013, and 2016. The highest number of motor vehicle thefts was 4, occurring in both 2017 and 2020. In 2022, there was 1 reported incident. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 2.31 in 2017 and stood at 0.67 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures remained minimal, never exceeding 0.02% of the state total.
Arson incidents were rare in Seligman, with only one year, 2017, reporting any cases. In that year, there were 5 arson incidents, representing a significant 0.66% of the state's total arson cases. This anomaly translates to a rate of 2.89 arsons per 1,000 residents for 2017. In all other years, including 2022, no arson cases were reported.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income rose from $26,097 in 2019 to $34,801 in 2021, total property crimes decreased from 12 to 10. Conversely, when median income dropped to $29,311 in 2022, property crimes increased to 15. However, this correlation is not consistently strong throughout the dataset.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Seligman may experience a slight increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 18-20 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime, while burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are likely to remain low but may show slight increases.
In summary, Seligman has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The most significant changes were observed in larceny-theft and burglary trends, while motor vehicle theft and arson remained relatively low. The relationship between economic factors and crime rates suggests that continued focus on improving median income could potentially contribute to further reductions in property crime incidents in the future.
