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Property Crime Trends in Sealy, Texas: A Decade of Change and Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sealy, located in Texas, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, coupled with moderate population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 34%, from 150 to 99 incidents, while the population grew by 14.5%, from 7,713 to 8,828 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 37 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 by 2022, representing a 59.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.8 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.7 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.06% throughout the period. The most significant spike occurred in 2014 and 2016 when the percentage reached 0.06%, but it has since stabilized at 0.02% in recent years.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a downward trend, though less pronounced than burglary. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 104 in 2010 to 67 in 2022, a 35.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 13.5 in 2010 to 7.6 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics has remained relatively constant, hovering between 0.01% and 0.03% throughout the period.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 9 reported cases, which increased to 17 in 2022, representing an 88.9% increase. However, this increase should be contextualized within the overall low numbers. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.2 in 2010 to 1.9 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.03%, with the highest percentage (0.03%) recorded in 2017 and 2022.
Arson incidents in the city have been minimal, with only one reported case in 2012. This isolated incident represented 0.03% of state arson cases that year. The lack of arson cases in other years suggests that it is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. For instance, as the median income increased from $69,041 in 2013 to $73,170 in 2018, property crimes decreased from 179 to 91 incidents. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period, suggesting other factors may also influence crime rates.
Population density shows a weak positive correlation with property crime rates. As density increased from 666 people per square mile in 2010 to 763 in 2022, property crimes fluctuated but generally trended downward, indicating that factors other than density may have a stronger influence on crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit with potential fluctuations. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that total property crimes could decrease by approximately 15-20% by 2029, reaching around 80-85 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially increasing by 10-15% if current trends persist.
In summary, Sealy has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's share of state crime statistics has remained relatively low and stable across all categories. While motor vehicle thefts have shown an upward trend, the overall property crime landscape has improved. These changes, coupled with population growth and economic factors, paint a picture of a city that has effectively managed its crime rates while experiencing moderate development. The projected continued decrease in overall property crimes suggests a positive outlook for community safety in Sealy in the coming years.
