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Property Crime Trends in Scranton: "The Office" City's Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Scranton, Pennsylvania, a city known for its industrial heritage and as the setting for the popular TV show "The Office," has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Scranton decreased by 47.1%, from 2,422 to 1,281 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of relatively stable population growth, with the city's population declining slightly by 0.3% from 76,068 in 2010 to 75,838 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 675 burglaries reported, which decreased to 134 in 2022, representing an 80.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.87 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.77 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, dropping from 2.63% in 2010 to 1.85% in 2022. This significant decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the city.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Scranton, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 1,631 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 1,059 in 2022, a 35.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 21.44 in 2010 to 13.96 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 2.1% in 2010 to 2.0% in 2022. This trend indicates that while larceny-theft remains a concern, the city has made progress in curbing this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a different pattern. There were 116 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 88 in 2022, a 24.1% reduction. However, the rate per 1,000 residents only slightly decreased from 1.53 in 2010 to 1.16 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased significantly from 1.08% in 2010 to 0.66% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime may have become more prevalent in other parts of the state relative to Scranton.
Arson cases in Scranton fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 26 arson incidents, which reduced to 13 in 2022, a 50% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.34 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 4.3% in 2010 to 2.22% in 2022, indicating that Scranton has made more progress in reducing arson compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $38,810 in 2013 to $48,279 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crime rates. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 52% in 2013 to 54% in 2021 coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher rates of homeownership contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglaries to potentially decrease by another 30-40%, larceny-theft by 15-20%, and motor vehicle theft by 10-15%. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate due to their relatively small numbers.
In summary, Scranton has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft, which have seen substantial decreases both in absolute numbers and rates per capita. These positive trends, coupled with improving economic indicators, suggest that Scranton is moving towards becoming a safer city with a potentially brighter economic future. However, continued vigilance and community engagement will be crucial to maintain and further improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.
