Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010 and 2011, it increased to 2 cases annually in 2019 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 to 0.40 over this period. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics increased from 0% to 0.02%. While the absolute numbers remain low, this upward trend warrants attention from local law enforcement.

Arson cases have been consistently reported as zero throughout the observed period. This absence of arson cases is a positive aspect of the city's crime profile, suggesting effective fire prevention measures or a community culture that discourages such activities.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes, particularly motor vehicle thefts, coincides with a period of population growth and increasing population density. For instance, as the population density increased from 1,217 per square mile in 2010 to 1,378 in 2020, motor vehicle thefts also saw an uptick. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the fluctuations in median income and property crime rates. For example, the median income dropped from $35,649 in 2014 to $33,775 in 2015, coinciding with an increase in property crimes from 5 to 10 between 2014 and 2016.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect: - Burglary rates to fluctuate but remain within the range of 2-4 cases annually. - Larceny-theft cases to stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year. - Motor vehicle thefts to potentially increase slightly, possibly reaching 3-4 cases annually. - Arson cases are likely to remain at zero or very close to it.

In summary, the property crime landscape in Scotts Hill has shown mixed trends over the past decade. While larceny-theft has decreased, motor vehicle theft has seen a slight increase. Burglary rates have fluctuated, and arson remains virtually non-existent. The correlations between population growth, economic factors, and crime rates suggest a complex interplay of social and economic dynamics influencing property crime in the city. As Scotts Hill continues to grow and evolve, maintaining vigilance in law enforcement and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in managing and potentially reducing property crime rates in the coming years.