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Property Crime Trends in Scotland Neck: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Scotland Neck, a small town in North Carolina, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of population decline. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased by 80.3%, from 132 to 26 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 18.1%, from 3,777 to 3,092 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 58 burglaries reported, which decreased to 13 in 2021, representing a 77.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 15.4 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 4.2 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2021, with a significant spike to 0.5% in 2020. This overall downward trend in burglaries suggests improving security measures or changing criminal behavior patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased substantially. In 2010, 73 larceny-thefts were reported, compared to just 6 in 2021, a 91.8% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 19.3 in 2010 to 1.9 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2021, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to the state's overall crime picture.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents fluctuated from 1 in 2010 to 7 in 2021, with years of zero reported thefts in between. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.26 in 2010 to 2.26 in 2021. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2021, suggesting that while the absolute numbers remain low, the city's relative contribution to state totals has grown.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, single cases were reported in 2012, 2020, and 2021. The arson rate per 1,000 people in years with incidents was approximately 0.27 in 2012, 0.35 in 2020, and 0.32 in 2021. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated, reaching 0.11% in 2021, indicating that while rare, these incidents represent a noticeable portion of state totals when they occur.
There appears to be a correlation between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income and home ownership rates. From 2013 to 2022, median income rose from $24,999 to $27,460, while the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 56% to 63%. This suggests that as economic conditions improved for residents, property crime rates decreased, possibly due to reduced economic motivation for such crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes over the next five years (up to 2029). However, the rate of decrease is likely to slow, with potential fluctuations in specific categories like motor vehicle theft and arson. We project that by 2029, total property crimes could stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In summary, Scotland Neck has seen a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This improvement coincides with rising median incomes and home ownership rates, suggesting a link between economic stability and reduced property crime. While challenges remain, particularly with sporadic increases in motor vehicle thefts and arson cases, the overall trend points to a safer community with fewer property-related offenses.
