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Property Crime Trends in Schertz, Texas: A Decade of Change Amidst Rapid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Schertz, Texas, a growing community located northeast of San Antonio, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 17.4% from 608 to 502 incidents. This decline occurred despite a substantial population growth of 56.3% during the same period, from 29,472 to 46,053 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 120 burglaries, which decreased to 64 in 2022, representing a 46.7% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.07 to 1.39, a significant 65.8% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.07% to 0.08% over this period, suggesting that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction was less pronounced compared to the state average. This trend indicates improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Schertz, showed a different pattern. The number of incidents decreased from 462 in 2010 to 345 in 2022, a 25.3% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents dropped more dramatically from 15.68 to 7.49, a 52.2% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.08% to 0.09%, indicating that the local reduction in larceny-theft was roughly in line with state trends. This suggests that community-wide efforts to prevent theft have been relatively successful.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents increased from 26 in 2010 to 93 in 2022, a substantial 257.7% increase. Even when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.88 to 2.02, a 129.5% increase. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.05% to 0.11%, indicating that this crime has become a more significant issue in Schertz compared to the rest of Texas. This trend may suggest a need for increased focus on vehicle security and targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson cases in Schertz have remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. From 6 incidents in 2010, the number decreased to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.20 to 0.02, a 90% reduction. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 0.14% to 0.05%, indicating that Schertz has made more progress in reducing arson compared to the state average. This positive trend suggests effective fire prevention and investigation measures.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The increase in population density from 901 per square mile in 2010 to 1,408 in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, challenging the notion that higher density leads to more crime. Additionally, the rise in median income from $82,458 in 2013 to $92,651 in 2022 correlates with the reduction in most property crimes, except for motor vehicle theft. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates, but specific types of crime may be influenced by other factors.
Racial demographics show some correlation with crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 59% in 2013 to 47% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 28% to 34%, overall property crime rates declined. This indicates that changing racial demographics have not negatively impacted crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with the exception of motor vehicle theft. Burglary and larceny-theft are projected to decline further, while motor vehicle theft may continue to rise if current trends persist. Arson is expected to remain at low levels.
In conclusion, Schertz has demonstrated a generally positive trend in managing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in reducing burglaries and larceny-theft despite significant population growth. The concerning rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused intervention. The city's evolving demographic and economic landscape appears to have a complex relationship with crime trends, highlighting the need for adaptive and targeted crime prevention strategies to maintain and improve public safety in this growing Texas community.
