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Property Crime Trends in Savanna, Illinois: A River City's Fluctuating Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Savanna, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2013 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 101 in 2013, dropping to a low of 61 in 2014, and then rising to 98 in 2018 before decreasing to 71 in 2019. This represents a net decrease of 29.7% over the period. Meanwhile, the population declined slightly from 5,247 in 2013 to 5,101 in 2019, a decrease of 2.8%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable trend. In 2013, there were 21 burglaries, which decreased to 17 in 2016, but then surged to 28 in 2018 before dropping to 19 in 2019. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 4.0 in 2013 to 5.5 in 2018, then decreased to 3.7 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.05% in 2013 to 0.10% in 2018, then declining to 0.08% in 2019. This suggests that while the absolute number of burglaries varied, the city's contribution to state burglary statistics increased over time, potentially indicating a localized issue.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Savanna, showed significant fluctuations. From a high of 72 incidents in 2013, it dropped to 41 in 2014, then rose to 66 in 2018 before decreasing to 50 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 13.7 in 2013, dropping to 7.9 in 2014, and settling at 9.8 in 2019. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.03% to 0.05%, indicating that local trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in Savanna remained relatively low but variable. From 8 incidents in 2013, it dropped to 2 in 2014 and 2015, increased to 4 in 2018, and then decreased to 2 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents followed this trend, peaking at 1.5 in 2013 and ending at 0.4 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.05%, suggesting that while numbers were low, they could represent a disproportionate share of state incidents in some years.
Arson cases were rare in Savanna, with only one reported incident in 2013 and another in 2018. This translates to a rate of 0.19 per 1,000 residents in those years. Despite the low numbers, these incidents represented 0.08% and 0.09% of state arson cases in 2013 and 2018 respectively, indicating that even isolated incidents in a small city can contribute notably to state statistics.
A strong correlation emerged between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,005 per square mile in 2013 to 1,949 in 2019, overall property crime rates also declined. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast property crime trends for Savanna up to 2029. The model suggests a potential continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes, with projections indicating a possible further reduction of 10-15% in total property crimes by 2029. However, this prediction comes with the caveat that small fluctuations, as seen in the historical data, could significantly impact year-to-year numbers in a city of this size.
In summary, Savanna has experienced a general decline in property crimes from 2013 to 2019, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The city's contribution to state crime statistics, while small, has shown variability, particularly in burglary rates. The correlation between decreasing population density and reduced crime rates suggests that demographic changes may play a role in shaping local crime trends. As Savanna moves forward, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving community safety.
