Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively stable in absolute numbers, with 3 cases in 2011 and 4 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.16 to 0.18. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.04% to 0.03%, indicating that this type of crime grew more slowly in Sartell than in the rest of Minnesota. This trend suggests effective local strategies in preventing motor vehicle thefts or a shift in criminal focus to other types of property crimes.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and low in number throughout the period. There was 1 case in 2011, and 0 cases reported in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.4% in 2015 but dropping to 0% in several years, including 2022. The infrequent nature of arson in the city makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends, but the overall low numbers suggest it is not a significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,861 per square mile in 2011 to 2,191 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in overall property crimes, particularly larceny-theft. This suggests that increased urbanization may be contributing to higher property crime rates. Additionally, the decline in homeownership rates from 74% in 2013 to 62% in 2022 coincides with the increase in property crimes, potentially indicating a relationship between property ownership and crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by larceny-theft. If current trends persist, the city could see total property crimes approaching 500 annually by 2029, with larceny-theft potentially exceeding 450 cases. Burglary rates are expected to remain relatively stable or slightly decrease, while motor vehicle theft may see a modest increase.

In summary, Sartell has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, predominantly driven by a rise in larceny-theft incidents. This trend has outpaced population growth, suggesting underlying factors beyond simple demographic changes. The divergent trends in different types of property crimes highlight the need for targeted law enforcement strategies and community initiatives to address the specific challenges faced by the city, particularly in combating larceny-theft while maintaining the relatively low rates of other property crimes.