Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable, with slight fluctuations. There were 9 incidents in 2010, which remained the same in 2022. However, when considering the population increase, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 1.09 in 2010 to 0.90 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has varied, from 1.03% in 2010 to 0.74% in 2022, suggesting that state-level trends have not mirrored the city's stability in this crime category.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. There were 2 cases in 2010, followed by several years with no reported incidents. In 2022, there were again 2 reported cases of arson. The rate per 1,000 residents remained essentially unchanged at 0.24 in 2010 and 0.20 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 1.14% in 2010 to 1.96% in 2022, indicating that arson may have decreased more significantly in other parts of the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,934 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,335 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that the growing urbanization of the area has not led to an increase in property crimes. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income increased from $40,710 in 2013 to $46,437 in 2022, coinciding with the overall downward trend in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially drop below 80 incidents per year. Burglaries might decrease to around 20 cases annually, larceny-theft could fall below 50 incidents, and motor vehicle theft may stabilize at around 8-10 cases per year. Arson is likely to remain sporadic but low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases annually.

In summary, Sandpoint has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with stable or slightly decreasing rates in motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a city that has effectively managed its crime challenges. These trends, when considered alongside the increasing median income and population density, suggest that the city's economic growth and urban development have not come at the cost of public safety. As Sandpoint continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for its continued prosperity and the well-being of its residents.