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Property Crime Trends in San Leandro: A Decade of Diverging Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
San Leandro, a city in California's Bay Area, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 35.6%, from 3,137 to 4,254 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 1.9%, from 85,159 to 86,761 residents, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 634 burglaries, which peaked at 761 in 2013 before steadily decreasing to 480 in 2022, representing a 24.3% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 7.4 in 2010 to 5.5 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.34% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of California.
Larceny theft has shown a more volatile trend. The number of incidents increased from 1,911 in 2010 to a peak of 2,941 in 2019, before declining to 2,499 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 30.8%. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents rose from 22.4 in 2010 to 28.8 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts increased significantly from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.50% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime has become more prevalent in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a dramatic increase over the years. The number of incidents rose from 592 in 2010 to 1,275 in 2022, a staggering 115.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 7.0 in 2010 to 14.7 in 2022. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased substantially from 0.46% to 0.83% over the same period, suggesting that this crime has become a particular concern for the city compared to other areas in California.
Arson cases have fluctuated but generally remained low. The number of incidents decreased from 15 in 2010 to 10 in 2020, with some years seeing higher numbers (e.g., 27 in 2018). The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.12 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases varied, reaching a high of 0.38% in 2018 before dropping to 0.10% in 2020. It's worth noting that data for 2022 was not available for arson.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes, particularly larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, coincides with a period of increasing population density, which grew from 6,391 people per square mile in 2010 to 6,511 in 2022. This suggests that higher density may be associated with increased opportunities for certain types of property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests that if current trends continue, the city may see: 1. A further decline in burglaries, potentially reaching around 400 incidents annually. 2. Larceny theft cases stabilizing around 2,600-2,700 per year. 3. Motor vehicle thefts continuing to increase, possibly exceeding 1,500 incidents annually. 4. Arson cases remaining low but potentially fluctuating between 10-20 incidents per year.
In summary, San Leandro's property crime landscape has evolved significantly over the past decade, with diverging trends across different categories. The substantial increase in motor vehicle thefts and larceny, coupled with the city's growing share of these crimes at the state level, highlights areas of concern for local law enforcement and policymakers. Conversely, the decline in burglaries suggests that preventive measures in this area may have been effective. As the city continues to grow and densify, addressing the rising property crime rates, particularly in theft-related categories, will be crucial for maintaining public safety and community well-being.
