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Property Crime Trends in San Felipe, Texas: A Small Town's Demographic Shift
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
San Felipe, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 3,081 in 2022 and covering an area of 8.36 square miles, this small community has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. The total number of property crimes decreased from 9 in 2010 to 8 in 2011, representing an 11.11% reduction. During the same period, the population declined from 3,023 in 2010 to 2,888 in 2011, a 4.47% decrease.
Analyzing burglary trends, we observe a significant decrease from 6 incidents in 2010 to 4 in 2011, a 33.33% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.98 in 2010 to 1.38 in 2011.
Larceny-theft remained constant at 2 incidents in both 2010 and 2011. However, due to the population decrease, the rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 0.66 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2011.
Motor vehicle theft saw an increase from 1 incident in 2010 to 2 in 2011, doubling the number of cases. This resulted in a rise in the rate per 1,000 people from 0.33 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2011. Arson incidents remained at zero for both 2010 and 2011, indicating no reported cases in the city during this period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other demographic factors, we observe a potential relationship between the overall decrease in property crimes and the declining population. The population density decreased from 361 per square mile in 2010 to 345 in 2011, which could have contributed to the reduction in burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends is challenging due to the limited data available. However, if we extrapolate from the observed trends, we might expect a continued slight decrease in overall property crimes over the next seven years, reaching 2029. This projection should be treated with caution due to the limited historical data and potential unforeseen factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, San Felipe experienced a decrease in overall property crimes from 2010 to 2011, with significant reductions in burglaries but an increase in motor vehicle thefts. The declining population during this period may have played a role in these trends. Further monitoring and data collection would be necessary to gain a more robust understanding of property crime trends in this Texas community.
