Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents decreased from 68 in 2010 to 34 in 2022, a 50% reduction, there was an uptick in recent years from a low of 20 incidents in 2014. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.2 in 2010 to 1.1 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a low of 0.04% in 2016 before rising slightly to 0.06% in 2021 and then dropping to 0.04% in 2022. This recent uptick, despite the overall decrease, may warrant attention from local law enforcement.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with the highest number being 8 incidents in 2010 and 2012. By 2022, this number had decreased to 2 incidents. The arson rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.26 in 2010 to 0.06 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated significantly, peaking at 0.23% in 2012 and dropping to 0% in 2021 before rising to 0.09% in 2022. While the numbers are small, the fluctuations suggest the need for consistent fire prevention and investigation efforts.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $33,370 in 2013 to $38,383 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 1,100 in 2014 to 426 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime in San Benito is likely to continue its downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crime incidents fall below 300, with burglaries potentially dropping to around 40 cases annually, larceny thefts to approximately 230 incidents, and motor vehicle thefts stabilizing at about 25 cases per year. Arson cases are likely to remain in the low single digits.

In conclusion, San Benito has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The consistent decline in burglaries and larceny thefts, coupled with the overall reduction in property crimes despite population growth, suggests effective crime prevention strategies and improved community safety. However, the recent slight increases in motor vehicle thefts and the fluctuations in arson cases indicate areas that may require ongoing vigilance. The strong correlation between rising median income and falling crime rates underscores the importance of economic development in enhancing public safety. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the well-being and security of its residents.