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Property Crime Trends in Salley: A Decade of Decline in a Shrinking Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Salley, a small community in South Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside significant population changes over the past decade. From 2012 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased from 7 to 1, representing an 85.7% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 688 to 406, a 41% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city show a decline over time. In 2012, there were 2 burglaries reported, which decreased to 0 by 2018. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary incidents. When examining burglary rates per 1,000 people, we see a decrease from 2.91 per 1,000 in 2012 to 0 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries also dropped from 0.02% in 2012 to 0% in 2018. This significant decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the population, suggests an improvement in residential security or effective crime prevention measures.
Larceny-theft incidents also show a downward trend. In 2012, there were 5 reported cases, which decreased to 0 by 2018, marking a 100% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 7.27 in 2012 to 0 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained consistently low, at 0.01% in 2012 and 0% in 2018. This decline in larceny-theft cases indicates a positive trend in property security within the community.
Motor vehicle theft trends show some fluctuation. There were no reported cases in 2012, but this increased to 2 cases in 2013, before dropping back to 0 in 2017 and then rising to 1 case in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people thus fluctuated from 0 in 2012 to 2.83 in 2013, then back to 0 in 2017, and finally to 2.46 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts peaked at 0.04% in 2013 but decreased to 0.02% by 2018. These fluctuations, while small in absolute numbers, represent significant percentage changes due to the city's small population.
Arson cases in the city have been rare. There was one reported case in 2013, representing a rate of 1.41 per 1,000 people and 0.44% of state arson cases. In all other years with available data (2012, 2017, and 2018), there were no reported arson cases. This suggests that arson is not a persistent problem in the community, though the single incident in 2013 stands out as an anomaly.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 898 per square mile in 2012 to 530 per square mile in 2018, the total number of property crimes also decreased from 7 to 1. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with fewer property crimes in this particular city.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, we can forecast that property crime rates in Salley are likely to remain low over the next five years, assuming current trends continue. By 2029, we might expect to see property crime incidents fluctuating between 0 and 2 cases per year, with potential occasional spikes due to the small population size making individual incidents statistically significant.
In summary, Salley has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the observed period, coinciding with a decrease in population. The most notable trends include the complete elimination of burglaries and larceny-theft by 2018, and the rare occurrence of arson. These trends, coupled with the correlation between decreasing population density and reduced crime rates, suggest an overall improvement in community safety and property security in Salley.
