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Property Crime Trends in Salem, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Salem, Illinois, a city with a population just under 9,000, has witnessed a remarkable decline in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 64.15%, dropping from 357 to 128 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of minimal population change, with the city experiencing only a 3.72% decrease in residents during the same period. The significant decrease in property crimes, coupled with a relatively stable population, indicates an overall improvement in public safety within Salem.
Burglary rates in Salem have shown a consistent downward trend. The number of burglaries fell from 69 in 2010 to 19 in 2022, representing a 72.46% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate decreased from 7.39 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.11 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglaries fluctuated over the years, reaching a peak of 0.69% in 2021 before sharply declining to 0.11% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that while local burglaries have decreased, Salem's share of state-wide burglaries has varied significantly.
Larceny theft, which constitutes the majority of property crimes in Salem, also demonstrated a decreasing trend. The number of larceny thefts fell from 284 in 2010 to 101 in 2022, a 64.44% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 30.41 in 2010 to 11.23 in 2022. Salem's contribution to state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.16% to 0.21% between 2010 and 2019, before decreasing to 0.10% in 2022. This indicates that Salem's reduction in larceny theft has generally aligned with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends in Salem have been more variable. The number of motor vehicle thefts increased from 4 in 2010 to 8 in 2022, a 100% increase. When accounting for population changes, the rate rose from 0.43 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.89 per 1,000 in 2022. Salem's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, with a notable peak of 0.29% in 2021. Despite this increase, motor vehicle thefts remain a relatively small component of Salem's overall property crime statistics.
Arson incidents in Salem have fluctuated without a clear trend. The annual number of arsons ranged from 0 to 6, with 3 reported in 2010 and 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, peaking at 0.68 in 2015 and dropping to 0 in 2022. Salem's contribution to state arsons has been inconsistent, ranging from 0% to 0.47%, suggesting that arson is not a persistent issue in the city.
Analysis of correlations reveals a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates in Salem. As the median income increased from $44,929 in 2013 to $55,441 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there appears to be a weak correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both generally decreasing over time.
Based on observed trends and assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain consistent, predictive models suggest that Salem's property crime rates may continue to decrease. By 2029, the city could potentially see around 100 property crime incidents per year.
In conclusion, Salem, Illinois has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. While motor vehicle thefts have slightly increased, they represent a small fraction of total property crimes. The city's contribution to state-wide property crimes has fluctuated but generally remains low. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in improving Salem's safety profile. If current trends persist, Salem may continue to see further reductions in property crime rates in the coming years, potentially enhancing its appeal as a safe community for residents and businesses alike.
